Showing posts with label debate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label debate. Show all posts

Friday, May 23, 2008

Sure, make assumptions!

  • “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” ~Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
  • “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” ~Ken Olson, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
  • “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” ~H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
  • “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” ~Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962
  • “I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.” ~Gary Cooper turning down “Gone With the Wind.”
  • “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. ~Western Union internal memo, 1876.
  • “The concept is interesting… but to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.” ~Yale professor on conceptual paper that became FedEx.
  • “What would I do? I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.” ~Michael Dell on Apple, 1997.
  • “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” ~Bill Gates, 1981.
  • “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” ~Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
  • So what is your assumption?

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Logical fallacies & Argumentation

All arguments have the same basic structure: A therefore B. They begin with one or more premises (A), which is a fact or assumption upon which the argument is based. They then apply a logical principle (therefore) to arrive at a conclusion (B). An example of a logical principle is that of equivalence. For example, if you begin with the premises that A=B and B=C, you can apply the logical principle of equivalence to conclude that A=C. A logical fallacy is a false or incorrect logical principle. An argument that is based upon a logical fallacy is therefore not valid. It is important to note that if the logic of an argument is valid then the conclusion must also be valid, which means that if the premises are all true then the conclusion must also be true. Valid logic applied to one or more false premises, however, leads to an invalid argument. Also, if an argument is not valid the conclusion may, by chance, still be true.
Top 20 Logical Fallacies (in alphabetical order)
1. Ad hominem An ad hominem argument is any that attempts to counter anothers claims or conclusions by attacking the person, rather than addressing the argument itself. True believers will often commit this fallacy by countering the arguments of skeptics by stating that skeptics are closed minded. Skeptics, on the other hand, may fall into the trap of dismissing the claims of UFO believers, for example, by stating that people who believe in UFO's are crazy or stupid.
2. Ad ignorantiam The argument from ignorance basically states that a specific belief is true because we don't know that it isn't true. Defenders of extrasensory perception, for example, will often overemphasize how much we do not know about the human brain. UFO proponents will often argue that an object sighted in the sky is unknown, and therefore it is an alien spacecraft.
3. Argument from authority Stating that a claim is true because a person or group of perceived authority says it is true. Often this argument is implied by emphasizing the many years of experience, or the formal degrees held by the individual making a specific claim. It is reasonable to give more credence to the claims of those with the proper background, education, and credentials, or to be suspicious of the claims of someone making authoritative statements in an area for which they cannot demonstrate expertise. But the truth of a claim should ultimately rest on logic and evidence, not the authority of the person promoting it.
4. Argument from final Consequences Such arguments (also called teleological) are based on a reversal of cause and effect, because they argue that something is caused by the ultimate effect that it has, or purpose that is serves. For example: God must exist, because otherwise life would have no meaning.
5. Argument from Personal Incredulity I cannot explain or understand this, therefore it cannot be true. Creationists are fond of arguing that they cannot imagine the complexity of life resulting from blind evolution, but that does not mean life did not evolve.
6. Confusing association with causation This is similar to the post-hoc fallacy in that it assumes cause and effect for two variables simply because they are correlated, although the relationship here is not strictly that of one variable following the other in time. This fallacy is often used to give a statistical correlation a causal interpretation. For example, during the 1990’s both religious attendance and illegal drug use have been on the rise. It would be a fallacy to conclude that therefore, religious attendance causes illegal drug use. It is also possible that drug use leads to an increase in religious attendance, or that both drug use and religious attendance are increased by a third variable, such as an increase in societal unrest. It is also possible that both variables are independent of one another, and it is mere coincidence that they are both increasing at the same time. A corollary to this is the invocation of this logical fallacy to argue that an association does not represent causation, rather it is more accurate to say that correlation does not necessarily mean causation, but it can. Also, multiple independent correlations can point reliably to a causation, and is a reasonable line of argument.
7. Confusing currently unexplained with unexplainable Because we do not currently have an adequate explanation for a phenomenon does not mean that it is forever unexplainable, or that it therefore defies the laws of nature or requires a paranormal explanation. An example of this is the "God of the Gapsâ" strategy of creationists that whatever we cannot currently explain is unexplainable and was therefore an act of god.
8. False Continuum The idea that because there is no definitive demarcation line between two extremes, that the distinction between the extremes is not real or meaningful: There is a fuzzy line between cults and religion, therefore they are really the same thing.
9. False Dichotomy Arbitrarily reducing a set of many possibilities to only two. For example, evolution is not possible, therefore we must have been created (assumes these are the only two possibilities). This fallacy can also be used to oversimplify a continuum of variation to two black and white choices. For example, science and pseudoscience are not two discrete entities, but rather the methods and claims of all those who attempt to explain reality fall along a continuum from one extreme to the other.
10. Inconsistency Applying criteria or rules to one belief, claim, argument, or position but not to others. For example, some consumer advocates argue that we need stronger regulation of prescription drugs to ensure their safety and effectiveness, but at the same time argue that medicinal herbs should be sold with no regulation for either safety or effectiveness.
11. The Moving Goalpost A method of denial arbitrarily moving the criteria for "proof" or acceptance out of range of whatever evidence currently exists.
12. Non-Sequitur In Latin this term translates to "doesn't follow". This refers to an argument in which the conclusion does not necessarily follow from the premises. In other words, a logical connection is implied where none exists.
13. Post-hoc ergo propter hoc This fallacy follows the basic format of: A preceded B, therefore A caused B, and therefore assumes cause and effect for two events just because they are temporally related (the latin translates to "after this, therefore because of this").
14. Reductio ad absurdum In formal logic, the reductio ad absurdum is a legitimate argument. It follows the form that if the premises are assumed to be true it necessarily leads to an absurd (false) conclusion and therefore one or more premises must be false. The term is now often used to refer to the abuse of this style of argument, by stretching the logic in order to force an absurd conclusion. For example a UFO enthusiast once argued that if I am skeptical about the existence of alien visitors, I must also be skeptical of the existence of the Great Wall of China, since I have not personally seen either. This is a false reductio ad absurdum because he is ignoring evidence other than personal eyewitness evidence, and also logical inference. In short, being skeptical of UFO's does not require rejecting the existence of the Great Wall.
15. Slippery Slope This logical fallacy is the argument that a position is not consistent or tenable because accepting the position means that the extreme of the position must also be accepted. But moderate positions do not necessarily lead down the slippery slope to the extreme.
16. Straw Man Arguing against a position which you create specifically to be easy to argue against, rather than the position actually held by those who oppose your point of view.
17. Special pleading, or ad-hoc reasoning This is a subtle fallacy which is often difficult to recognize. In essence, it is the arbitrary introduction of new elements into an argument in order to fix them so that they appear valid. A good example of this is the ad-hoc dismissal of negative test results. For example, one might point out that ESP has never been demonstrated under adequate test conditions, therefore ESP is not a genuine phenomenon. Defenders of ESP have attempted to counter this argument by introducing the arbitrary premise that ESP does not work in the presence of skeptics. This fallacy is often taken to ridiculous extremes, and more and more bizarre ad hoc elements are added to explain experimental failures or logical inconsistencies.
18. Tautology A tautology is an argument that utilizes circular reasoning, which means that the conclusion is also its own premise. The structure of such arguments is A=B therefore A=B, although the premise and conclusion might be formulated differently so it is not immediately apparent as such. For example, saying that therapeutic touch works because it manipulates the life force is a tautology because the definition of therapeutic touch is the alleged manipulation (without touching) of the life force.
19. Tu quoque Literally, you too. This is an attempt to justify wrong action because someone else also does it. "My evidence may be invalid, but so is yours."
20. Unstated Major Premise This fallacy occurs when one makes an argument which assumes a premise which is not explicitly stated. For example, arguing that we should label food products with their cholesterol content because Americans have high cholesterol assumes that: 1) cholesterol in food causes high serum cholesterol; 2) labeling will reduce consumption of cholesterol; and 3) that having a high serum cholesterol is unhealthy. This fallacy is also sometimes called begging the question.

Friday, August 03, 2007

Blind guess

Euros are aproaching fast. To cut all the I am looking foward to crap...let me try to guess topics of the debates in preliminary rounds. Hopefully this will be interesting to read afterwards:

  • Doping (THW legalise doping)
  • Global warming (THB Kyoto is a myth)
  • Kosovo (THS independant Kosovo)
  • Drugs (legalisation)
  • EU (But nothing to do with Turkey)
  • Terrorism (negotiate with terrorist)
  • SC and Darfur
EuroLotto anyone?

Sunday, March 11, 2007

The Doha Debates

  • Yesterday I had a five minutes TV break and while channel surfing I saw an interesting show on BBC World. It was the Doha Debates and they were debating on the motion: 'This House believes the face veil is a barrier to integration in the West', and I thought I have heard some quality debating in the past, but these debaters and their speeches just blew me away.
  • Anyway I looked up their Internet site, that has all the videos and transcripts of past debates, and I really recommend you watch it if you are interested in some high quality debating and middle east issues.
  • I strongly recommend you take a look: The Doha Debates.
  • Will Slovenia ever have shows on this level?

Sunday, December 10, 2006

THW support FWB ( friends with benefits )

In the ever more demanding world, individuals are forced to work harder and work more! Therefore they have less and less time and energy to pursue a romantic relationship. But in spite of all of their hard work, beneath their nice business suits they are still humans. And human blood carries many different hormones. Certain organs, (yes we are talking about brain :) ), understands these hormones as a very simple message: I want sex. And because these individuals are mostly too busy and have little time and energy to have a loving partner, that eats up their precious time and energy, they usually end up having very little or no sex at all. That makes them feel unsatisfied, unhappy and thus less efficient in their profession. Furthermore they are more susceptible to stress and diseases. To make individuals happier and more satisfied, we should drop a big burden the catholic, puritan tradition weighed upon the western world by defining friends who have unconditional, unbound sex as a sin. We should support this stress reliever by giving tax cuts to hotels that rent rooms for a few hours and leave condomes on the pillows instead of chocolates. We would also give tax cuts to all who help bring people together, dating services or seduction programmes alike... By ajusting certain policies, we must show that having sex is not a sin, but something essentially natural. There are two main reasons why we should do this: 1. Improving individual happiness and health 2. Freeing the society.
  1. By giving everyone better chances to do what his/her body needs and desires we get happier individuals, that are not slaves to their unsatisfied needs and drives. That means you get a psychologically more stable, more effective individual, which can according to Freud do much more for others because he isn't overwhelmed by focusing on himself and his confusing unsatisfied needs. But even more importantly sex is also great for your health. All the medical researches show that individuals that have enough safe sex are also more healthy. A recent study by Queens university revealed that people having enough sex have a reduced risk of heart disease, lose weight, have better overall fitness, have reduced risk of depression, finds that sex is also a good pain-relief, causes less-frequent colds and flu, enable better bladder control, makes teeth more solid and reduces the risk of prostate cancer. We believe that individuals, we are freeing, are responsible enough to have safe sex, because STD are currently declining in the western world and the health benefits of having more sex are enormous, and would consequently decrease the costs for health system, because fewer people would have the mentioned health problems. Another consequence would be happier and more productive citizens, which can create more and better, because they aren't frustrated or overstressed. And that is why it is important to realize that friends with benefits are beneficial individually and socially.
  2. Society should be free of the false norms of catolic, puritan tradition. Having sex is not a sin or something bad, having sex is normal, natural and can be lots of fun. We shouldn't condemn a behaviour, science says is natural. We should condemn ways of thinking that say something that brings us pleasure and happiness is a sin. We should decrease the so called moral limitations and obstacles society is bringing upon already stressed individuals who need sex. If there are fewer limitations or there is support, then logically more individuals will get some. And it is a very good idea for a society, if individuals get some, because the consequences of that is that we get a more relaxed, stress free society. A good example why this works is comparing two monkey species, that are genetically quite similar to us. We have chimpanzees that have a strict social organisation where only dominant males can have sex, and their society is very violent and stressful to live in, because they are always fighting for sex. On the other hand we have the Macaques species that have sex as a way to decrease stress levels - whenever they want. Their society is more peaceful, because there is always a pleasureful way to let of steam. Even the famous sexologist Kinsey reported that because these monkeys use sex as a pressure reliever, their society creates more happy individuals, that cooperate together more effectively. Consequently supporting this plan brings the society satisfied individuals that are not driven by their unsatisfied needs and desires, but are more free to cooperate on common projects and achieve more by working together. Furthermore by decreasing stress and frustration in individuals we also get a less violent society. And I would like to hear a reason why more violence and crime is good? So to free the individuals from the wrong, puritan ideas and to free them from their personal frustrations, it is very important to support this motion.
  • To sum up, supporting FWB improves individual happiness and health and frees individuals and the society from irrational ideas and frustrations caused by lack of sex. Lets help our citizens satisfy their most basic needs safely, instead of frustrating them by creating obstacles for them.

I would like to ask every debater that isn't too busy or "on debating holidays" to help me, by giving suggestions/comments on how to improve this plan ( structure, matter, arguments, more examples where...).